Renewable electricty dominates California utility plans

Tags: FSLR, S2M.DE, FSLR, CAISO
19 Oct 5:26am
Posted by CleantechBlog
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by Mark Henwood

On Thursday (10/16) I attended the User Group meeting of Plexos Solutions LLC, a boutique firm providing software and consulting to the rapidly changing California electric market. One of the presentations covered issues surrounding integration of renewable energy resources into the California Independent System Operator (CAISO). This is important to sustainable energy investors because virtually all the growth in generating capacity in California is forecast to come from renewable resources. While the fundamentals of this market have been overwhelmed by broader market conditions this last month, over time the fundamentals provide the tailwind that will lift stocks. And the growth expectations for renewables are very high in the California market.

Over the period 2007 - 2012 the CAISO is planning for increases over existing capacity of:
  • 5,053 MW of wind, a 187% increase,
  • 1,064 MW of geothermal, a 68% increase,
  • 946 MW of concentrating solar, a 203% increase,
  • 508 MW of utility scale PV solar, a 2,032% increase, and
  • 221 MW of biomass, a 28% increase
These are huge numbers representing billions of dollars of projects and electric revenues. Particularly striking to me are the growth expectations for the two main solar approaches.

In the concentrating solar sector, the state currently has 354 MW of large projects operating with the last one completed in 1990, 18 years ago. Most of this capacity is owned by FPL Energy, part of a large regulated utility. So the new capacity has to come from a sector that hasn’t, in California at least, been able to construct a project for many years. Equally noticeable it the paucity of publicly traded companies in the concentrating solar sector. Solar Millennium (S2M.DE) is one the few with significant concentrating solar activity.

The state currently has 8 projects with 3,689 MW of large concentrating solar projects in the permitting pipeline. But these numbers are deceptive. Of the 8, two projects are actually “solar/thermal” hybrids like the existing operating projects. These two projects represent 1,180 MW of capacity with 112 MW attributable to solar. The remaining 6 projects are a gamut of technologies ranging from troughs, reflectors, towers, and Sterling engines. These projects are all owned by private companies or municipal utilities and currently don’t present an opportunity for public market investors.

The PV solar sector provides more avenues for public investors to participate via investment in the PV supply chain. If the numbers work out the utility market represents a multi-year, very large opportunity. Let’s take a look.

As of the end of 2007 California had an estimated 279 MW of installed PV in homes and businesses and 25 MW of utility scale projects. This makes sense since the home and business markets are net metering against retail rates whereas utility scale projects have to compete against wholesale markets. So the premise is that PV solar is now becoming sufficiently competitive at the wholesale level to install over 500 MW in the next 5 years.

One of the first test cases was recently announced. On July 10, 2008 the California Public Utilities Commission approved a 7.5 MW contract between First Solar’s (FSLR) FSE Blythe project and Southern California Edision. Unfortunately much of the economic information was not disclosed but some key data can be gleaned from the record. First, the company is projecting an excellent 27% capacity factor for the project, significantly higher than typical estimates for PV projects. But equally important is the company is pursing the development receiving a price at or below the “market reference price” which is based on a highly efficient modern thermal plant. After accounting for some messy seasonal and time-of-use factors I calculate the project will receive approximately USD 0.14/kWh on average plus a 30% tax credit now that the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 passed. If FirstSolar can make money at this project then they are very near the holy grail of grid parity (at least until the credit expires December 31, 2016). And the utility systems can, according to the CAISO, absorb large amounts of solar power for years to come. Game on.

Mark is the founder of Camino Energy, an information provider specializing in globally traded sustainable energy stocks. Mark has no position in the stocks mentioned in this article.
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Contributing Columnists: * Neal Dikeman, Founder Cleantech Blog, Partner at Jane Capital Partners * Richard Stuebi, BP Fellow for Energy and Environmental Advancement, Cleveland Foundation * Heather Rae, President, Brae Consulting – Sustainability marketing expert * John Addison, Author of Clean Fleet Report, Director, California Hydrogen Business Council * Dr. Peter Beadle, CEO GreenJobs.com, former BP Solar exec Guest Contributors: * Joel Makower, World Leading Sustainability Advocate, Founder Clean Edge * Felix Kramer, Founder, CalCars.org * Nick Bruse, General Manager Clean Technology AustralAsia * Anne-Marie Fleming, President, Investor Ideas, and publisher of leading renewable energy stock web site * Mark Bitterman, Editor, Superconductor Week * Gerry Woolf, Editor, BEST Magazine We also welcome contact from PR firms looking to connect with green, sustainable, and cleantech bloggers. Neal Dikeman: I founded Cleantech Blog in 2005. I am a merchant banker and co-founder of Jane Capital Partners LLC, where I head the energy and environmental practice, and prior to that worked in venture capital, private equity and investment banking in the tech and energy sectors. We have co-founded four emrging startups in cleantech and IT (in superconductors, fuel cells, RF, and carbon credits) since the tech wreck, and advise the technology and venture investment arms of three multi-nationals. In all of it, I have been lucky enough to work with some amazing colleagues, bosses, and partners. Besides Cleantech Blog, I am a contributing editor of AltEnergyStocks.com, and contributing author to Inside Greentech. Along with our own, the blogs I regularly read include Jim Fraser's The Energy Blog, Rob Day's CleantechVC, Tyler Hamilton's Clean Break, Joel Makower's Two Steps Forward, and Inside Greentech. My areas of expertise are always a work in process, but I have been quoted, cited, or interviewed on energy, alternative energy, and cleantech issues by numerous online and print publications including Red Herring, Energy Intelligence, Time.com, Bloomberg, San Francisco Chronicle, Forbes.com, Ethical Investor, Wall Street Reporter, and FT.com among others, on topics ranging from: cleantech, solar, ethanol, blogging, technology commercialization, corporate venture investment, energy prices and policy, technology transfer, carbon trading, and renewable and alternative energy. Feel free to contact me at dikeman@janecapital.com. Mr. Richard T. Stuebi Richard Stuebi has nearly 20 years of experience as an executive, entrepreneur and consultant in the energy industry, with most of the past decade focused on advanced energy technologies. He is currently serving as the BP Fellow for Energy and Environmental Advancement at the Cleveland Foundation, one of the largest community foundations in the US with over $1.6 Billion in assets. He works with various public and private sector stakeholders to promote commercial activity in advanced energy in the Cleveland area. Mr. Stuebi has authored numerous articles that have appeared in such leading industry periodicals as The Electricity Journal and Public Utilities Fortnightly, and has presented at numerous major energy conferences. He is a contributing columnist to Cleantech Blog, writing on alternative energy issues, news and events. Prior to joining the Foundation, Richard founded NextWave Energy, a professional firm focused on capitalizing upon new business opportunities stemming from innovative energy technologies. As President of NextWave Energy, he assisted several emerging and established private-sector clients in various aspects of business development, including strategy and capital formation. Previously, Richard was a senior vice president at Louis Dreyfus, the global commodity trading firm and was a management consultant in the energy practice of McKinsey & Co. Richard earned degrees in economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Stanford University. His areas of expertise include: Economics in alternative and renewable energy, energy policy, trade, and development. Cleantech finance and technology strategy. You can contact him at rts@nextwave-energy.com. Ms. Heather Rae Heather is a green marketing expert and a long-time advocate of green technology and sustainable business. Through her consultancy Brae Consulting, Heather has worked for energy companies, cleantech startups, and nonprofits (she is currently working with a home energy efficiency program of the Maine Governor's office). Her previous corporate marketing experience includes Xcel Energy (demand-side management and green power) and Qwest Communications. A hands on expert - Heather has practiced what she preached. She is certified in high performance residential building (Green Advantage®) and has served as co-director of Colorado's Interfaith Power & Light. Readers of Cleantech Blog will know that Heather converted a retired school bus into the Brae Bio Bus, a recreational vehicle running on biodiesel (B100) with solar panels for auxiliary power, and recently drove it across the country blogging the experiences in finding biodiesel in different parts of the US. Having reached her destination at Maine Home Performance, a program of the Maine Governor's Office where Heather is helping design programs to certify and link Maine contractors with homeowners who want to "go green", Heather is now tackling the conversion of an 1880s Maine farmhouse into an energy efficiency and green showcase. Heather graduated from Wesleyan University and is a contributing columnist to Cleantech Blog writing on green and sustainable products and marketing from the consumer's point of view. Her areas of expertise include: Green marketing programs and strategies, grass roots green and sustainable programs for consumers, using green technologies in the home. You can contact her at heather.rae@braeconsulting.com Mr. John Addison John is an accomplished writer, speaker, and expert in technology marketing and strategy. He is one of the IT converts that are driving the cleantech industry. Since 1992, his marketing consultancy OPTIMARK, Inc. has provided educational programs, market intelligence, market development and partner development for technology and government leaders. A believer in cleantech's potential to change the world for the better, John is the Publisher of the Clean Fleet Report and serves on the Board of the California Hydrogen Business Council. He is a contributing columnist to Cleantech Blog. He is the author of the book Revenue Rocket on channel marketing in technology, and the upcoming book Save Gas, Save the Planet on what we as individuals can do to help save the planet. Earlier in his career John was an area channel manager for Sun Microsystems. For three years, he led a sales team to 300% annual growth in 15 states, increasing revenue from $4 to $110 million. He has taught courses about marketing and innovation at U.C. Davis and U.C. Santa Cruz Extension. He is a popular speaker in the Americas, Europe and Asia. You can find more of his speeches and articles on his websites Clean Fleet Report and Revenue Rocket. His areas of expertise include: Technology marketing and marketing strategy, channel marketing, fuel cells and the hydrogen economy, alternative fueled fleets, and California's energy tech corridor. You can contact him at johnaddison1@gmail.com. Dr. Peter Beadle Peter is the owner and CEO of GreenJobs.com. He is an is an experienced technology executive and an expert on a wide range of green and energy technologies, including photovoltaics, fuel processing, fuel cells, and oil & gas technologies. Green Jobs is one of the few dedicated job sites for the renewables and cleantech industry. They put out the online Green Directory, as well as a weekly newsletter on People News in cleantech. Peter is a contributing columnist to Cleantech Blog writing on renewable energy news and events. Peter holds a PhD in Physical Chemistry, and previously served President of BP Solar's North American division. Prior to that he held a number of positions in R&D and technology management within British Petroleum. His areas of expertise include: Solar, fuel cells, oil & gas, renewable energy job market You can contact him at Peter@greenjobs.com.

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