Reality Check on Earth2Tech's Top 10 Cleantech Predictions for 2009

Tags: greentech, cleantech
8 Jan 1:35am
Posted by CleantechBlog
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Katie Fehrenbacher, writing on Earth2Tech, is one of the most prolific of the cleantech journalists. She compiled this week their 2009 top 10 cleantech predictions. Here's my take, worth the electronic paper it's printed on, of what she got right, wrong, "duh, of course", and most understated. Just for fun, of course, Katie's one of my most favorite bloggers.


1) U.S. Federal Policy On Climate Change Will Move Slowly:


Probably. But the end of 2009 in Copenhagen is still a pivotal point for the global climate change framework, so we have to get our act together to play ball.


2) Oil Prices Will Stay Low For Much of the Year, Potentially Climbing in Q4 of 2009:


True only if you believe that oil prices in the $30s are low. I happen not to. $15 is low. $40 is high. $140 is ridiculously high. Oil has been essentially deflationary for 30+ years, with just a blip looking flat in real terms the last couple. And the big variable is GDP growth. No economic recovery, no oil price stablization, let alone rise. I don't buy that OPEC will stop the slide over the next couple of quarters either. And I don't buy a Q4 climb.


3) Next Generation of Biofuels on the Backburner:


Only if you believe they were ever on the front burner. I've been blogging this siren's song for years.


4) Green Buildings are Bright Spot:


Probably a good call. It is growing, but is it large enough to be a bright spot?


5) Utilities Turn to Energy Efficiency Programs:


Utilities ALWAYS turn to energy efficiency programs, they just never seem to achieve scale. But we can hope. My hope is demand side energy efficienciy gets included in our cap and trade scheme.


6) Gloomy Skies for Traditional Solar PV:


I disagree. In a year when companies are reporting falling sales, solar will still be a way outperfomer. But we should see margins compressed as the industry learns that it (gasp!) really is a heavily subsidized very cyclical business when supply growth meets subsidy weakness and economic turmoil.


7) Infotech Turns to Energy Efficiency to Save Cash:


Hmmmmh. With energy prices cratering? I could imagine some wind coming out of these sails (or sales). But I'm not an expert on this one.


8) More Green Buildings? Yes. Emergence of the Smart Home? No.:


Smart home is another of those siren's songs. Smart metering, however, is a goldmine, and just now coming into it's own. We'll see how it weathers the financial crisis.


9) Public Perceptions of Green to Become More Savvy:


How about, the public just ceases to care? We'll find out just how much of a luxury item "green" really is. My personal benchmark here is random chats with Erik Blachford, CEO of Terrapass, the leading retailer of carbon credits. His last prognosis - green may be a bit more of a luxury item than previously expected. But we can hope. And I'll keep asking Erik.


10) Green Investors Go Conservative Or Double Down:


Come on people, energy is STILL the biggest industry out there. When energy prices are cratering it's time to buy. Just stop buying into the highest cost producer (like next gen biofuels :)) of the most "out there" technology at venture prices. But try telling that to Sandhill Road.

Neal Dikeman is a partner at Jane Capital Partners LLC, the Chairman and Founding CEO of Carbonflow, Inc., edits the Cleantech Blog and Chairs Cleantech.org.
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Cleantech Blog was founded by Neal Dikeman, and all our columnists are experts in their fields. Some of them are available for media interviews and quotes, speaking engagements and consulting. You can find biographies, areas of expertise and contact information for the columnists who have agreed to be available for comments below. Contributing Columnists: * Neal Dikeman, Founder Cleantech Blog, Partner at Jane Capital Partners * Richard Stuebi, BP Fellow for Energy and Environmental Advancement, Cleveland Foundation * Heather Rae, President, Brae Consulting – Sustainability marketing expert * John Addison, Author of Clean Fleet Report, Director, California Hydrogen Business Council * Dr. Peter Beadle, CEO GreenJobs.com, former BP Solar exec Guest Contributors: * Joel Makower, World Leading Sustainability Advocate, Founder Clean Edge * Felix Kramer, Founder, CalCars.org * Nick Bruse, General Manager Clean Technology AustralAsia * Anne-Marie Fleming, President, Investor Ideas, and publisher of leading renewable energy stock web site * Mark Bitterman, Editor, Superconductor Week * Gerry Woolf, Editor, BEST Magazine We also welcome contact from PR firms looking to connect with green, sustainable, and cleantech bloggers. Neal Dikeman: I founded Cleantech Blog in 2005. I am a merchant banker and co-founder of Jane Capital Partners LLC, where I head the energy and environmental practice, and prior to that worked in venture capital, private equity and investment banking in the tech and energy sectors. We have co-founded four emrging startups in cleantech and IT (in superconductors, fuel cells, RF, and carbon credits) since the tech wreck, and advise the technology and venture investment arms of three multi-nationals. In all of it, I have been lucky enough to work with some amazing colleagues, bosses, and partners. Besides Cleantech Blog, I am a contributing editor of AltEnergyStocks.com, and contributing author to Inside Greentech. Along with our own, the blogs I regularly read include Jim Fraser's The Energy Blog, Rob Day's CleantechVC, Tyler Hamilton's Clean Break, Joel Makower's Two Steps Forward, and Inside Greentech. My areas of expertise are always a work in process, but I have been quoted, cited, or interviewed on energy, alternative energy, and cleantech issues by numerous online and print publications including Red Herring, Energy Intelligence, Time.com, Bloomberg, San Francisco Chronicle, Forbes.com, Ethical Investor, Wall Street Reporter, and FT.com among others, on topics ranging from: cleantech, solar, ethanol, blogging, technology commercialization, corporate venture investment, energy prices and policy, technology transfer, carbon trading, and renewable and alternative energy. Feel free to contact me at dikeman@janecapital.com. Mr. Richard T. Stuebi Richard Stuebi has nearly 20 years of experience as an executive, entrepreneur and consultant in the energy industry, with most of the past decade focused on advanced energy technologies. He is currently serving as the BP Fellow for Energy and Environmental Advancement at the Cleveland Foundation, one of the largest community foundations in the US with over $1.6 Billion in assets. He works with various public and private sector stakeholders to promote commercial activity in advanced energy in the Cleveland area. Mr. Stuebi has authored numerous articles that have appeared in such leading industry periodicals as The Electricity Journal and Public Utilities Fortnightly, and has presented at numerous major energy conferences. He is a contributing columnist to Cleantech Blog, writing on alternative energy issues, news and events. Prior to joining the Foundation, Richard founded NextWave Energy, a professional firm focused on capitalizing upon new business opportunities stemming from innovative energy technologies. As President of NextWave Energy, he assisted several emerging and established private-sector clients in various aspects of business development, including strategy and capital formation. Previously, Richard was a senior vice president at Louis Dreyfus, the global commodity trading firm and was a management consultant in the energy practice of McKinsey & Co. Richard earned degrees in economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Stanford University. His areas of expertise include: Economics in alternative and renewable energy, energy policy, trade, and development. Cleantech finance and technology strategy. You can contact him at rts@nextwave-energy.com. Ms. Heather Rae Heather is a green marketing expert and a long-time advocate of green technology and sustainable business. Through her consultancy Brae Consulting, Heather has worked for energy companies, cleantech startups, and nonprofits (she is currently working with a home energy efficiency program of the Maine Governor's office). Her previous corporate marketing experience includes Xcel Energy (demand-side management and green power) and Qwest Communications. A hands on expert - Heather has practiced what she preached. She is certified in high performance residential building (Green Advantage®) and has served as co-director of Colorado's Interfaith Power & Light. Readers of Cleantech Blog will know that Heather converted a retired school bus into the Brae Bio Bus, a recreational vehicle running on biodiesel (B100) with solar panels for auxiliary power, and recently drove it across the country blogging the experiences in finding biodiesel in different parts of the US. Having reached her destination at Maine Home Performance, a program of the Maine Governor's Office where Heather is helping design programs to certify and link Maine contractors with homeowners who want to "go green", Heather is now tackling the conversion of an 1880s Maine farmhouse into an energy efficiency and green showcase. Heather graduated from Wesleyan University and is a contributing columnist to Cleantech Blog writing on green and sustainable products and marketing from the consumer's point of view. Her areas of expertise include: Green marketing programs and strategies, grass roots green and sustainable programs for consumers, using green technologies in the home. You can contact her at heather.rae@braeconsulting.com Mr. John Addison John is an accomplished writer, speaker, and expert in technology marketing and strategy. He is one of the IT converts that are driving the cleantech industry. Since 1992, his marketing consultancy OPTIMARK, Inc. has provided educational programs, market intelligence, market development and partner development for technology and government leaders. A believer in cleantech's potential to change the world for the better, John is the Publisher of the Clean Fleet Report and serves on the Board of the California Hydrogen Business Council. He is a contributing columnist to Cleantech Blog. He is the author of the book Revenue Rocket on channel marketing in technology, and the upcoming book Save Gas, Save the Planet on what we as individuals can do to help save the planet. Earlier in his career John was an area channel manager for Sun Microsystems. For three years, he led a sales team to 300% annual growth in 15 states, increasing revenue from $4 to $110 million. He has taught courses about marketing and innovation at U.C. Davis and U.C. Santa Cruz Extension. He is a popular speaker in the Americas, Europe and Asia. You can find more of his speeches and articles on his websites Clean Fleet Report and Revenue Rocket. His areas of expertise include: Technology marketing and marketing strategy, channel marketing, fuel cells and the hydrogen economy, alternative fueled fleets, and California's energy tech corridor. You can contact him at johnaddison1@gmail.com. Dr. Peter Beadle Peter is the owner and CEO of GreenJobs.com. He is an is an experienced technology executive and an expert on a wide range of green and energy technologies, including photovoltaics, fuel processing, fuel cells, and oil & gas technologies. Green Jobs is one of the few dedicated job sites for the renewables and cleantech industry. They put out the online Green Directory, as well as a weekly newsletter on People News in cleantech. Peter is a contributing columnist to Cleantech Blog writing on renewable energy news and events. Peter holds a PhD in Physical Chemistry, and previously served President of BP Solar's North American division. Prior to that he held a number of positions in R&D and technology management within British Petroleum. His areas of expertise include: Solar, fuel cells, oil & gas, renewable energy job market You can contact him at Peter@greenjobs.com.

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